Norfolk and Norwich house price forecasts for 2027

The published UK forecasts for 2027 cluster between 2% and 3% growth. The lowest comes from Hamptons at 2%; the highest from Knight Frank at 3%. The Office for Budget Responsibility sits in the middle at 2.9% and Savills at 2.5%. None of them is a Norfolk figure. On the UK House Price Index the county has grown 0.7% in the year to July 2026 and Norwich has fallen 2.3%, so applying a UK forecast to a Norfolk home overstates the growth it is actually seeing.

Forecasts are not data. They are each firm’s best guess at where the national average will sit, made at a point in time, with the assumptions in the small print. The record is that they get it wrong often enough to be worth reading as a range, not a number. The regional cuts, where they exist, have a wider margin than the headline. For Norfolk and Norwich specifically, no mainstream forecaster publishes a county or city figure. This piece gathers the UK and East of England numbers that are published and sets them next to what has actually been happening on our Norfolk house prices tracker.

What the forecasters have published for 2027

Four of the seven firms below have published a specific figure for 2027. The other three, JLL, Nationwide and Zoopla, publish outlooks that do not put a 2027 number in print. The Bank of England does not forecast house prices directly; its material appears later in the piece under the interest-rate assumption that most of these forecasts rest on.

Figures as published by each firm. The East of England column is blank where the firm does not publish a regional 2027 number; it does not mean the firm thinks the region will match the UK.

All four that give a 2027 figure fall between 2% and 3%. The OBR’s number is produced by a different process from the estate agents’ and is often quoted alongside them, but it is really a Treasury planning assumption rather than a view on the market. The agents’ forecasts rest on an assumption that the Bank Rate falls further through 2026 and 2027. If it does not, the growth they are pricing in does not arrive.

What has actually been happening

On the UK House Price Index release for July 2026, published 17 September, Norfolk’s average sold price was £269,185, up 0.7% on July 2025. Norwich was £224,323, down 2.3%. The East of England as a whole was £337,518, up 0.5%. England was £293,479, up 1.1%. The county has been within about £5,000 of £270,000 for most of 2026 and the index is still 4.4% below its January 2023 peak.

Inside the county the picture is uneven. Broadland reached £313,407 in July (up 2.9%), North Norfolk £292,563 (down 3.1%) and Great Yarmouth £209,114 (up 0.7%). King’s Lynn and West Norfolk was £265,715 (up 3.0%). The district figures move around more than the county average because the sales count behind each is small, around 100 to 150 in a typical month, and a few higher-value sales shift the mean. The town-level numbers in our half-year report are drawn from Price Paid records on the same basis.

The upshot: if the Knight Frank UK figure of 3% in 2027 proved right and Norfolk kept its recent gap below the national rate, Norfolk growth could land closer to 1% than to 3%. If the Hamptons figure of 2% is nearer the mark and the Norfolk gap holds, the county could see close to flat. A buyer who assumes a 3% uplift because that is the headline number is not reading the regional record.

What past forecasts got wrong

The record is public, and worth reading. In November 2022 the OBR forecast UK house prices to fall by about 9% between the end of 2022 and the third quarter of 2024. The fall arrived, but it was shallower. By November 2023 the OBR had revised the peak-to-trough fall to about 7.6%; its March 2024 forecast then moved to a 2% fall in 2024 with a trough in Q4. In practice the UK index fell about 3% through 2023, recovered through 2024, and was back above its late-2022 level by the end of 2025. The direction was right; the magnitude was overstated by several points.

Nationwide’s own house price index began 2025 forecasting growth of 2% to 4% for the year. The outturn came in at the bottom of that range, with annual growth easing from 4.7% at the end of 2024 to 1.8% by November 2025. The forecast was not wrong, but a buyer who used the midpoint for budgeting ended the year with a smaller cushion than expected.

Both episodes rhyme. Forecasts tend to amplify the sign of what the market is already doing. A pessimistic revision at a market low tends to be too pessimistic. An optimistic one at a cyclical pick-up tends to be too optimistic. The 2027 forecasts are being made at a point where growth has already slowed, so if the published numbers err, they are at least as likely to err to the downside as to the upside.

What the forecasts rest on

Every mainstream UK forecast assumes the Bank Rate continues to fall. The OBR works to a Bank of England market curve that sees it drift down into the mid-3s through 2027. The headline 2027 figures assume mortgage rates come in materially from the five-year fixed rates around 4.3% currently on the market. If inflation proves stickier or the Bank cuts more cautiously, two things happen. New fixed rates stay higher for longer, affordability stays tight, and the growth these forecasts show in 2027 slips into 2028 or does not arrive at all.

The second common assumption is that the Autumn Budget 2025 property income tax changes, which take effect from April 2027, do not materially shift behaviour. The OBR itself expects those changes to shave about 0.1 percentage points a year off house price growth from 2028, which is small, but it is a known headwind that is not in the 2027 numbers.

What this means for a Norfolk buyer

If you are buying your home to live in, the forecasts matter less than the mortgage payment you can afford and the price you can agree. The county average has barely moved in two years, which means a sensible offer on a sensibly priced home is unlikely to be undercut by a short price fall in the next year or two. If you are buying as an investment, the realistic range for a Norfolk home over 2027 is probably 0% to 2%. Rental yield will do more of the work than capital growth. Our prices by district and first-time buyer pages have the current figures.

Data sources: UK House Price Index, July 2026 release (ONS and HM Land Registry); Savills Residential five-year mainstream forecast, revised June 2026; Knight Frank UK residential forecast, revised April 2026; JLL residential forecast, revised May 2026; Hamptons housing market forecast, December 2025; Nationwide House Price Review and Outlook, December 2025; Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2026.

Related guides

• Norfolk house prices: what homes cost, district by district
• Norfolk house prices in the first half of 2026
• Norfolk house prices in Q1 2026
• First-time buyers in Norfolk
• Norfolk mortgage guide

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How we produced this guide

Each forecaster’s 2027 figure is taken from the firm’s own published five-year forecast or budget outlook, as named in the data sources line. We cite the UK figure where that is what the firm publishes, and the East of England figure where one has been published for 2027; we have not inferred a regional figure where the firm has not given one. The record for Norfolk, Norwich and the East of England is the UK House Price Index release for July 2026, published 17 September 2026 by the Office for National Statistics with HM Land Registry. Past-forecast comparisons use the OBR’s November 2022, November 2023 and March 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlooks and Nationwide’s December 2024 and 2025 outlook statements. Figures and scheme rules were checked on 2 October 2026. See our methodology page for source links.